"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that when your book offers "if/reverses," it is possible to play those rather than parlays. Some of you may not discover how to bet an "if/reverse." A full explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, combined with the situations where each is best..
An "if" bet is exactly what it appears like. Without a doubt Team A and IF it wins you then place an equal amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at differing times is a kind of "if" bet in which you bet on the first team, and when it wins you bet double on the next team. With a true "if" bet, rather than betting double on the next team, you bet an equal amount on the next team.
You can avoid two calls to the bookmaker and secure the existing line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you need to make an "if" bet. "If" bets can be made on two games kicking off simultaneously. The bookmaker will wait until the first game has ended. If the first game wins, he will put an equal amount on the next game even though it was already played.
Although an "if" bet is really two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that you no longer want the next bet. Once you make an "if" bet, the next bet can't be cancelled, even if the second game has not gone off yet. If the first game wins, you will have action on the next game. For that reason, there is less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. When the two games you bet overlap in time, however, the only way to bet one only when another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Of course, when two games overlap with time, cancellation of the next game bet isn't an issue. It ought to be noted, that when the two games start at different times, most books won't allow you to complete the next game later. You must designate both teams once you make the bet.
You can create an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I want to make an 'if' bet," and, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction would be the identical to betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and then, only when Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the initial team in the "if" bet loses, there is no bet on the next team. No matter whether the second team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet will be $110 once you lose on the first team. If the initial team wins, however, you'll have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the second team. If so, if the second team loses, your total loss would be just the $10 of vig on the split of both teams. If both games win, you'll win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a complete win of $200. Thus, the maximum loss on an "if" would be $110, and the utmost win will be $200. That is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the entire $110, rather than just $10 of vig, each time the teams split with the initial team in the bet losing.
As you can plainly see, it matters a good deal which game you put first within an "if" bet. In the event that you put the loser first in a split, you then lose your full bet. In the event that you split however the loser may be the second team in the bet, then you only lose the vig.
Bettors soon found that the way to steer clear of the uncertainty due to the order of wins and loses would be to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Instead of betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you would bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and then make a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The next bet would put Team B first and Team A second. This sort of double bet, reversing the order of exactly the same two teams, is called an "if/reverse" or sometimes just a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't have to state both bets. You merely tell the clerk you would like to bet a "reverse," both teams, and the total amount.
If both teams win, the result would be the same as if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the first "if bet, and then $50 on Team B, for a total win of $100. In the next "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and then $50 on Team A, for a complete win of $100. Both "if" bets together create a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the result would also be the same as if you played a single "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would set you back $55 in the first "if" combination, and nothing would look at Team B. In the next combination, Team B's loss would set you back $55 and nothing would go onto to Team A. You would lose $55 on each of the bets for a total maximum lack of $110 whenever both teams lose.
link vào 888b occurs when the teams split. Rather than losing $110 once the first team loses and the next wins, and $10 once the first team wins but the second loses, in the reverse you will lose $60 on a split whichever team wins and which loses. It computes in this manner. If Team A loses you'll lose $55 on the initial combination, and also have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the second combination, you'll win $50 on Team B, and also have action on Team A for a $55 loss, producing a net loss on the next mix of $5 vig. The increased loss of $55 on the initial "if" bet and $5 on the next "if" bet gives you a combined loss of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you will lose the $5 vig on the initial combination and the $55 on the second combination for exactly the same $60 on the split..
We have accomplished this smaller loss of $60 instead of $110 once the first team loses with no reduction in the win when both teams win. In both single $110 "if" bet and the two reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers would never put themselves at that type of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the extra $50 loss ($60 rather than $10) whenever Team B may be the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us hardly any money, but it does have the benefit of making the chance more predictable, and preventing the worry concerning which team to put first in the "if" bet.
(What follows is an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations provide you with a headache, skip them and write down the guidelines. I'll summarize the rules in an easy to copy list in my next article.)
As with parlays, the overall rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, when you can win more than 52.5% or even more of your games. If you cannot consistently achieve a winning percentage, however, making "if" bets once you bet two teams will save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds an element of luck to your betting equation it doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, they should both be bet. Betting on one should not be made dependent on whether you win another. Alternatively, for the bettor who has a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the second team whenever the first team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the truth that he is not betting the second game when both lose. When compared to straight bettor, the "if" bettor comes with an additional cost of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, anything that keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets reduce the number of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is exactly opposite. Anything that keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and therefore "if" bets will cost the winning handicapper money. When the winning bettor plays fewer games, he's got fewer winners. Understand that next time someone lets you know that the best way to win is to bet fewer games. A smart winner never really wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" workout exactly the same as "if" bets, they both place the winner at an equal disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - Whenever a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
Much like all rules, you can find exceptions. "If" bets and parlays ought to be made by a winner with a confident expectation in only two circumstances::
When there is no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I could think of which you have no other choice is if you are the best man at your friend's wedding, you're waiting to walk down the aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of one's tux so you left it in the car, you merely bet offshore in a deposit account without line of credit, the book includes a $50 minimum phone bet, you like two games which overlap in time, you grab your trusty cell five minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you must walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your own arm, you try to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you only have $75 in your account.
Because the old philosopher used to say, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If that's the case, hold your mind up high, put a smile on your face, search for the silver lining, and create a $50 "if" bet on your two teams. Of course you could bet a parlay, but as you will see below, the "if/reverse" is an excellent replacement for the parlay for anyone who is winner.
For the winner, the best method is straight betting. Regarding co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, there is a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor gets the advantage of increased parlay odds of 13-5 on combined bets which have greater than the normal expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets must always be contained within the same game, they must be produced as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage comes from the truth that we make the next bet only IF among the propositions wins.
It could do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favorite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We'd simply lose the vig regardless of how often the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favourite and over and the underdog and under, we are able to net a $160 win when among our combinations will come in. When to choose the parlay or the "reverse" when coming up with co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Based on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the intended purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when among our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay without the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win will be $180 every time one of our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse minus the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
Whenever a split occurs and the under will come in with the favorite, or higher comes in with the underdog, the parlay will eventually lose $110 as the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" has a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay includes a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay would be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we have been not in a 50-50 situation. If the favorite covers the high spread, it is more likely that the overall game will go over the comparatively low total, and if the favorite fails to cover the high spread, it really is more likely that the game will under the total. As we have already seen, when you have a positive expectation the "if/reverse" is really a superior bet to the parlay. The actual probability of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends on how close the lines on the side and total are one to the other, but the proven fact that they're co-dependent gives us a confident expectation.
The point at which the "if/reverse" becomes an improved bet than the parlay when making our two co-dependent is really a 72% win-rate. This is not as outrageous a win-rate since it sounds. When making two combinations, you have two chances to win. You only have to win one from the two. Each of the combinations has an independent positive expectation. If we assume the chance of either the favourite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or another must win) then all we are in need of is really a 72% probability that whenever, for example, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the overall game will go over the full total 53 � at the very least 72% of the time as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we have been only � point away from a win. That a BC cover will result in an over 72% of that time period is not an unreasonable assumption under the circumstances.
When compared with a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win an extra $4 seventy-two times, for a complete increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" may cause us to lose an extra $10 the 28 times that the results split for a complete increased loss of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."