"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that if your book offers "if/reverses," you can play those rather than parlays. Some of you might not know how to bet an "if/reverse." A full explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, combined with the situations in which each is best..
An "if" bet is exactly what it appears like. Without a doubt Team A and IF it wins you then place an equal amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at differing times is a kind of "if" bet where you bet on the initial team, and when it wins you bet double on the next team. With a genuine "if" bet, instead of betting double on the next team, you bet an equal amount on the next team.
You can avoid two calls to the bookmaker and secure the existing line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you want to make an "if" bet. "If" bets may also be made on two games kicking off simultaneously. The bookmaker will wait before first game is over. If the first game wins, he'll put an equal amount on the next game though it has already been played.
Although an "if" bet is in fact two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that you no longer want the next bet. As soon as you make an "if" bet, the second bet cannot be cancelled, even if the next game have not gone off yet. If the first game wins, you should have action on the next game. For that reason, there is less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. When the two games without a doubt overlap in time, however, the only method to bet one only when another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Needless to say, when two games overlap with time, cancellation of the second game bet isn't an issue. It ought to be noted, that when the two games start at different times, most books will not allow you to fill in the next game later. You need to designate both teams once you make the bet.
You may make an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I wish to make an 'if' bet," and then, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction would be the same as betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and then, only if Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the first team in the "if" bet loses, there is absolutely no bet on the next team. No matter whether the second team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet would be $110 when you lose on the initial team. If the initial team wins, however, you would have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the next team. In that case, if the second team loses, your total loss will be just the $10 of vig on the split of the two teams. If both games win, you would win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a complete win of $200. Thus, the utmost loss on an "if" will be $110, and the maximum win would be $200. That is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the full $110, rather than just $10 of vig, every time the teams split with the first team in the bet losing.
As you can plainly see, it matters a good deal which game you put first within an "if" bet. In the event that you put the loser first in a split, then you lose your full bet. In the event that you split however the loser is the second team in the bet, you then only lose the vig.
Bettors soon found that the way to steer clear of the uncertainty due to the order of wins and loses would be to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Instead of betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you'll bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and create a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The second bet would put Team B first and Team Another. This kind of double bet, reversing the order of exactly the same two teams, is named an "if/reverse" or sometimes only a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't need to state both bets. You merely tell the clerk you would like to bet a "reverse," both teams, and the amount.
If both teams win, the result would be the identical to if you played a single "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the first "if bet, and $50 on Team B, for a total win of $100. In the second "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and then $50 on Team A, for a complete win of $100. The two "if" bets together result in a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the result would also function as same as in the event that you played an individual "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would set you back $55 in the first "if" combination, and nothing would look at Team B. In the second combination, Team B's loss would set you back $55 and nothing would go onto to Team A. tải app new88 would lose $55 on each one of the bets for a total maximum lack of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs once the teams split. Instead of losing $110 when the first team loses and the next wins, and $10 when the first team wins however the second loses, in the reverse you'll lose $60 on a split no matter which team wins and which loses. It works out this way. If Team A loses you will lose $55 on the initial combination, and have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the second combination, you will win $50 on Team B, and also have action on Team A for a $55 loss, resulting in a net loss on the next mix of $5 vig. The loss of $55 on the initial "if" bet and $5 on the next "if" bet gives you a combined loss of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you'll lose the $5 vig on the initial combination and the $55 on the next combination for exactly the same $60 on the split..
We've accomplished this smaller loss of $60 rather than $110 once the first team loses with no decrease in the win when both teams win. In both the single $110 "if" bet and both reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers could not put themselves at that type of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the excess $50 loss ($60 rather than $10) whenever Team B may be the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us hardly any money, but it has the benefit of making the risk more predictable, and avoiding the worry as to which team to place first in the "if" bet.
(What follows is an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations give you a headache, skip them and simply write down the guidelines. I'll summarize the rules in an easy to copy list in my next article.)
As with parlays, the overall rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, when you can win a lot more than 52.5% or even more of your games. If you cannot consistently achieve a winning percentage, however, making "if" bets once you bet two teams will save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds an element of luck to your betting equation it doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, then they should both be bet. Betting on one should not be made dependent on whether or not you win another. On the other hand, for the bettor who includes a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the next team whenever the first team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the truth that he could be not betting the next game when both lose. Compared to the straight bettor, the "if" bettor has an additional expense of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, whatever keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets reduce the number of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is exactly opposite. Anything that keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and for that reason "if" bets will definitely cost the winning handicapper money. When the winning bettor plays fewer games, he has fewer winners. Understand that next time someone tells you that the way to win would be to bet fewer games. A smart winner never really wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" work out a similar as "if" bets, they both place the winner at the same disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - Whenever a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
Much like all rules, you can find exceptions. "If" bets and parlays ought to be made by successful with a positive expectation in only two circumstances::
When there is no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or perhaps a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I could think of you have no other choice is if you are the very best man at your friend's wedding, you are waiting to walk down the aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of your tux which means you left it in the automobile, you merely bet offshore in a deposit account with no credit line, the book has a $50 minimum phone bet, you like two games which overlap with time, you grab your trusty cell 5 minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you need to walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your arm, you make an effort to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you merely have $75 in your account.
As the old philosopher used to say, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If so, hold your mind up high, put a smile on your face, search for the silver lining, and create a $50 "if" bet on your two teams. Of course you can bet a parlay, but as you will see below, the "if/reverse" is an effective replacement for the parlay for anyone who is winner.
For the winner, the very best method is straight betting. In the case of co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, there exists a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor gets the benefit of increased parlay odds of 13-5 on combined bets that have greater than the normal expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets must always be contained within exactly the same game, they must be made as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage originates from the truth that we make the next bet only IF one of the propositions wins.
It would do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favourite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We'd simply lose the vig regardless of how usually the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favourite and over and the underdog and under, we can net a $160 win when among our combinations comes in. When to find the parlay or the "reverse" when making co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Based on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the intended purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when one of our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay without the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win will be $180 every time one of our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse without the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
When a split occurs and the under will come in with the favorite, or over comes in with the underdog, the parlay will lose $110 as the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" has a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay has a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay will be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we have been not in a 50-50 situation. If the favorite covers the high spread, it really is more likely that the game will go over the comparatively low total, and if the favorite fails to cover the high spread, it is more likely that the overall game will under the total. As we have previously seen, once you have a confident expectation the "if/reverse" is a superior bet to the parlay. The specific possibility of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends upon how close the lines privately and total are one to the other, but the fact that they're co-dependent gives us a confident expectation.
The point where the "if/reverse" becomes a better bet than the parlay when coming up with our two co-dependent is really a 72% win-rate. This is simply not as outrageous a win-rate as it sounds. When making two combinations, you have two chances to win. You merely need to win one out of the two. Each one of the combinations has an independent positive expectation. If we assume the opportunity of either the favourite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or the other must win) then all we need is really a 72% probability that when, for example, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the overall game will go over the full total 53 � at least 72% of that time period as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we are only � point from a win. A BC cover will result in an over 72% of that time period isn't an unreasonable assumption under the circumstances.
When compared with a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win an extra $4 seventy-two times, for a complete increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" will cause us to lose an extra $10 the 28 times that the results split for a complete increased loss of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."