"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that if your book offers "if/reverses," it is possible to play those instead of parlays. Some of you might not discover how to bet an "if/reverse." A complete explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, together with the situations in which each is best..
An "if" bet is strictly what it sounds like. You bet Team A and IF it wins you then place the same amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at different times is a type of "if" bet in which you bet on the initial team, and if it wins without a doubt double on the next team. With a true "if" bet, instead of betting double on the second team, you bet an equal amount on the next team.
It is possible to avoid two calls to the bookmaker and lock in the current line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you would like to make an "if" bet. "If" bets can even be made on two games kicking off at the same time. The bookmaker will wait until the first game is over. If the initial game wins, he will put an equal amount on the next game even though it has already been played.
Although an "if" bet is actually two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that you no longer want the next bet. Once you make an "if" bet, the next bet cannot be cancelled, even if the next game have not gone off yet. If the first game wins, you should have action on the next game. Because of this, there's less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. When the two games you bet overlap in time, however, the only method to bet one only if another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Needless to say, when two games overlap with time, cancellation of the next game bet isn't an issue. It ought to be noted, that when the two games start at different times, most books will not allow you to complete the next game later. You must designate both teams once you make the bet.
You can create an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I would like to make an 'if' bet," and, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction would be the same as betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and, only if Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the initial team in the "if" bet loses, there is absolutely no bet on the next team. Whether or not the next team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet will be $110 once you lose on the first team. If the initial team wins, however, you'll have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the next team. If so, if the next team loses, your total loss will be just the $10 of vig on the split of both teams. If both games win, you would win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a total win of $200. Thus, the utmost loss on an "if" will be $110, and the utmost win would be $200. That is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the full $110, rather than just $10 of vig, each and every time the teams split with the initial team in the bet losing.
As you can plainly see, it matters a great deal which game you put first within an "if" bet. If you put the loser first in a split, you then lose your full bet. In the event that you split however the loser is the second team in the bet, then you only lose the vig.
Bettors soon discovered that the way to avoid the uncertainty caused by the order of wins and loses would be to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Instead of betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you would bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and make a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The second bet would put Team B first and Team Another. This kind of double bet, reversing the order of the same two teams, is called an "if/reverse" or sometimes only a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't need to state both bets. You only tell the clerk you wish to bet a "reverse," both teams, and the total amount.
If both teams win, the effect would be the identical to if you played a single "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the first "if bet, and $50 on Team B, for a complete win of $100. In the second "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and $50 on Team A, for a total win of $100. The two "if" bets together create a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the effect would also be the same as if you played a single "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would set you back $55 in the first "if" combination, and nothing would look at Team B. In the second combination, Team B's loss would cost you $55 and nothing would go onto to Team A. You would lose $55 on each of the bets for a total maximum loss of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs once the teams split. Instead of losing $110 when the first team loses and the second wins, and $10 when the first team wins however the second loses, in the reverse you'll lose $60 on a split no matter which team wins and which loses. It works out this way. If Team A loses you will lose $55 on the first combination, and also have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the next combination, you'll win $50 on Team B, and have action on Team A for a $55 loss, producing a net loss on the next mix of $5 vig. The increased loss of $55 on the initial "if" bet and $5 on the next "if" bet offers you a combined lack of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you will lose the $5 vig on the first combination and the $55 on the second combination for exactly the same $60 on the split..
We've accomplished this smaller lack of $60 instead of $110 when the first team loses without reduction in the win when both teams win. In both single $110 "if" bet and both reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers could not put themselves at that sort of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the extra $50 loss ($60 rather than $10) whenever Team B may be the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us any money, but it has the advantage of making the chance more predictable, and preventing the worry concerning which team to put first in the "if" bet.
(What follows can be an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations provide you with a headache, skip them and simply write down the rules. I'll summarize the guidelines in an easy to copy list in my next article.)
As with parlays, the general rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, if you can win more than 52.5% or more of your games. If you cannot consistently achieve a winning percentage, however, making "if" bets whenever you bet two teams can save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds an element of luck to your betting equation that doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, then they should both be bet. Betting on one shouldn't be made dependent on whether you win another. Alternatively, for the bettor who has a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the next team whenever the first team loses. By preventing Hi88 , the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the fact that he could be not betting the next game when both lose. When compared to straight bettor, the "if" bettor has an additional cost of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, whatever keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets decrease the number of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is strictly opposite. Whatever keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and therefore "if" bets will definitely cost the winning handicapper money. Once the winning bettor plays fewer games, he's got fewer winners. Understand that the next time someone lets you know that the best way to win is to bet fewer games. A good winner never really wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" workout exactly the same as "if" bets, they both place the winner at an equal disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - When a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
Much like all rules, there are exceptions. "If" bets and parlays ought to be made by successful with a positive expectation in only two circumstances::
When there is no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or perhaps a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I could think of which you have no other choice is if you're the best man at your friend's wedding, you are waiting to walk down that aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of one's tux which means you left it in the automobile, you only bet offshore in a deposit account with no line of credit, the book has a $50 minimum phone bet, you like two games which overlap with time, you grab your trusty cell 5 minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you must walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your arm, you make an effort to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you merely have $75 in your account.
As the old philosopher used to say, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If so, hold your head up high, put a smile on your face, search for the silver lining, and make a $50 "if" bet on your own two teams. Of course you could bet a parlay, but as you will notice below, the "if/reverse" is a wonderful replacement for the parlay in case you are winner.
For the winner, the very best method is straight betting. Regarding co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, there exists a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor is getting the benefit of increased parlay probability of 13-5 on combined bets that have greater than the normal expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets must always be contained within exactly the same game, they must be produced as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage originates from the truth that we make the next bet only IF among the propositions wins.
It would do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favourite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We would simply lose the vig regardless of how often the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favourite and over and the underdog and under, we can net a $160 win when one of our combinations will come in. When to choose the parlay or the "reverse" when making co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Predicated on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when among our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay without the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win will be $180 every time one of our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse minus the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
When a split occurs and the under will come in with the favorite, or over will come in with the underdog, the parlay will lose $110 while the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" includes a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay has a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay will be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we have been not in a 50-50 situation. If the favourite covers the high spread, it really is much more likely that the overall game will review the comparatively low total, and when the favorite does not cover the high spread, it really is more likely that the overall game will beneath the total. As we have already seen, if you have a positive expectation the "if/reverse" is really a superior bet to the parlay. The specific probability of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends upon how close the lines on the side and total are to one another, but the fact that they're co-dependent gives us a confident expectation.
The point at which the "if/reverse" becomes a better bet compared to the parlay when making our two co-dependent is really a 72% win-rate. This is simply not as outrageous a win-rate as it sounds. When making two combinations, you have two chances to win. You only have to win one out of the two. Each of the combinations comes with an independent positive expectation. If we assume the chance of either the favourite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or the other must win) then all we need is really a 72% probability that whenever, for instance, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the overall game will go over the total 53 � at least 72% of the time as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we are only � point away from a win. A BC cover can lead to an over 72% of that time period is not an unreasonable assumption beneath the circumstances.
In comparison with a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win a supplementary $4 seventy-two times, for a complete increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" may cause us to lose an extra $10 the 28 times that the results split for a complete increased loss of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."