"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that if your book offers "if/reverses," it is possible to play those rather than parlays. Some of you might not discover how to bet an "if/reverse." A full explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, along with the situations where each is best..
An "if" bet is strictly what it sounds like. You bet Team A and IF it wins then you place the same amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at differing times is a kind of "if" bet in which you bet on the first team, and when it wins you bet double on the second team. With a genuine "if" bet, rather than betting double on the next team, you bet an equal amount on the second team.
It is possible to avoid two calls to the bookmaker and lock in the existing line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you want to make an "if" bet. "If" bets may also be made on two games kicking off at the same time. The bookmaker will wait until the first game is over. If the initial game wins, he will put an equal amount on the second game even though it was already played.
Although an "if" bet is in fact two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that so long as want the next bet. Once you make an "if" bet, the next bet cannot be cancelled, even if the next game has not gone off yet. If the first game wins, you should have action on the next game. For that reason, there's less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. Once the two games without a doubt overlap in time, however, the only method to bet one only when another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Of course, when two games overlap with time, cancellation of the next game bet isn't an issue. It ought to be noted, that when both games start at different times, most books won't allow you to complete the next game later. You must designate both teams once you make the bet.
You possibly can make an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I would like to make an 'if' bet," and, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction will be the same as betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and then, only when Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the initial team in the "if" bet loses, there is no bet on the second team. Whether or not the next team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet will be $110 when you lose on the initial team. If the initial team wins, however, you would have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the next team. In that case, if the second team loses, your total loss will be just the $10 of vig on the split of the two teams. If both games win, you'll win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a total win of $200. Thus, the utmost loss on an "if" will be $110, and the maximum win will be $200. This is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the full $110, rather than just $10 of vig, every time the teams split with the initial team in the bet losing.
As you can see, it matters a great deal which game you put first in an "if" bet. In the event that you put the loser first in a split, you then lose your full bet. If you split but the loser may be the second team in the bet, then you only lose the vig.
Bettors soon found that the way to avoid the uncertainty caused by the order of wins and loses would be to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Rather than betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you'll bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and make a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The next bet would put Team B first and Team A second. This sort of double bet, reversing the order of the same two teams, is called an "if/reverse" or sometimes just a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't need to state both bets. You only tell the clerk you wish to bet a "reverse," the two teams, and the amount.
If both teams win, the result would be the same as if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the initial "if bet, and then $50 on Team B, for a complete win of $100. In the next "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and then $50 on Team A, for a complete win of $100. Both "if" bets together result in a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the result would also be the same as if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would set you back $55 in the initial "if" combination, and nothing would go onto Team B. In the second combination, Team B's loss would set you back $55 and nothing would look at to Team A. You'll lose $55 on each one of the bets for a complete maximum lack of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs when the teams split. Rather than losing $110 when the first team loses and the next wins, and $10 when the first team wins however the second loses, in the reverse you will lose $60 on a split whichever team wins and which loses. It computes this way. If Team A loses you will lose $55 on the first combination, and have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the second combination, you'll win $50 on Team B, and also have action on Team A for a $55 loss, resulting in a net loss on the next combination of $5 vig. The loss of $55 on the first "if" bet and $5 on the next "if" bet gives you a combined lack of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you'll lose the $5 vig on the first combination and the $55 on the next combination for the same $60 on the split..
We've accomplished this smaller lack of $60 instead of $110 once the first team loses without decrease in the win when both teams win. In both single $110 "if" bet and the two reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers could not put themselves at that sort of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the extra $50 loss ($60 rather than $10) whenever Team B may be the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us any money, but it has the benefit of making the chance more predictable, and preventing the worry as to which team to place first in the "if" bet.
(What follows can be an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations provide you with a headache, skip them and write down the rules. I'll summarize the guidelines in an easy to copy list in my own next article.)
As with parlays, the general rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, if you can win a lot more than 52.5% or more of your games. If you fail to consistently achieve an absolute percentage, however, making "if" bets whenever you bet two teams can save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds some luck to your betting equation that doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, then they should both be bet. Betting using one should not be made dependent on whether or not you win another. However, for the bettor who includes a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the next team whenever the first team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the point that he is not betting the next game when both lose. Compared to the straight bettor, the "if" bettor has an additional cost of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, anything that keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets reduce the number of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is strictly opposite. Whatever keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and therefore "if" bets will definitely cost the winning handicapper money. When the winning bettor plays fewer games, he's got fewer winners. Understand that next time someone lets you know that the best way to win would be to bet fewer games. A good winner never wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" work out exactly the same as "if" bets, they both place the winner at an equal disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - Whenever a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
Much like all rules, there are exceptions. "If" bets and parlays ought to be made by a winner with a confident expectation in only two circumstances::
When there is no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I could think of you have no other choice is if you are the very best man at your friend's wedding, you're waiting to walk down the aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of your tux and that means you left it in the car, you only bet offshore in a deposit account without credit line, the book includes a $50 minimum phone bet, you like two games which overlap with time, you pull out your trusty cell five minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you must walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your own arm, you try to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you only have $75 in your account.
As the old philosopher used to state, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If so, hold your mind up high, put a smile on your own face, look for the silver lining, and make a $50 "if" bet on your own two teams. Needless to say you could bet a parlay, but as you will notice below, the "if/reverse" is an effective replacement for the parlay if you are winner.
For the winner, the very best method is straight betting. Regarding co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, you will find a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor is getting the benefit of increased parlay probability of 13-5 on combined bets which have greater than the normal expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets must always be contained within the same game, they must be made as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage comes from the fact that we make the second bet only IF among the propositions wins.
It could do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favorite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We'd simply lose the vig no matter how usually the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favorite and over and the underdog and under, we are able to net a $160 win when one of our combinations will come in. When to find the parlay or the "reverse" when coming up with co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Based on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the intended purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when among our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay minus the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win will be $180 every time among our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse minus the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
Whenever a split occurs and the under will come in with the favorite, or over will come in with the underdog, the parlay will lose $110 while the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" has a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay has a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay will be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we have been not in a 50-50 situation. If truy cập 789bet covers the high spread, it is much more likely that the game will review the comparatively low total, and if the favorite does not cover the high spread, it is more likely that the overall game will under the total. As we have already seen, if you have a confident expectation the "if/reverse" is really a superior bet to the parlay. The actual probability of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends on how close the lines privately and total are one to the other, but the proven fact that they're co-dependent gives us a positive expectation.
The point at which the "if/reverse" becomes a better bet compared to the parlay when coming up with our two co-dependent is a 72% win-rate. This is simply not as outrageous a win-rate as it sounds. When making two combinations, you have two chances to win. You merely need to win one out of your two. Each one of the combinations has an independent positive expectation. If we assume the chance of either the favorite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or another must win) then all we need is a 72% probability that when, for example, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the game will go over the full total 53 � at the very least 72% of that time period as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we have been only � point away from a win. That a BC cover will result in an over 72% of that time period is not an unreasonable assumption beneath the circumstances.
As compared with a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win an extra $4 seventy-two times, for a total increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" may cause us to lose a supplementary $10 the 28 times that the outcomes split for a total increased loss of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."